Estimating the probability that a simulated system will be the best

Consider a stochastic simulation experiment consisting of v independent vector replications consisting of an observation from each of k independent systems. Typical system comparisons are based on mean (long‐run) performance. However, the probability that a system will actually be the best is sometimes more relevant, and can provide a very different perspective than the systems' means. Empirically, we select one system as the best performer (i.e., it wins) on each replication. Each system has an unknown constant probability of winning on any replication and the numbers of wins for the individual systems follow a multinomial distribution. Procedures exist for selecting the system with the largest probability of being the best. This paper addresses the companion problem of estimating the probability that each system will be the best. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the multinomial cell probabilities for a set of v vector replications across k systems are well known. We use these same v vector replications to form v^k unique vectors (termed pseudo‐replications) that contain one observation from each system and develop estimators based on AVC (All Vector Comparisons). In other words, we compare every observation from each system with every combination of observations from the remaining systems and note the best performer in each pseudo‐replication. AVC provides lower variance estimators of the probability that each system will be the best than the MLEs. We also derive confidence intervals for the AVC point estimators, present a portion of an extensive empirical evaluation and provide a realistic example. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 341–358, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10019     

时延分布式控制系统的Truetime仿真分析

针对航空发动机分布式控制系统的时延问题,应用Matlab的Truetime工具箱,设计了控制系统仿真分析平台,分析了时延对系统稳定性的影响。首先针对一类应用状态反馈的控制系统,分析了存在传感器到控制器单侧时延的情况下,系统保持稳定的充分条件。在此基础上,以某型航空发动机为例,基于Truetime工具箱设计了分布式控制仿真系统,分析了不同的时延条件对系统稳定性的影响。仿真结果与理论分析结果一致,证明了系统的有效性。     

具连续分布滞量的二阶中立型阻尼偏微分方程解的振动准则

研究一类具有阻尼项和连续分布滞量的二阶中立型偏微分方程解的振动性,通过利用Riccati变换,引入一类Φ(t,s,l)型的新函数,获得该类方程在Robin,Dirichlet边值条件下振动的充分判据.     

Analysis of a machine repair problem with an unreliable server and phase type repairs and services

In this paper we study a machine repair problem in which a single unreliable server maintains N identical machines. The breakdown times of the machines are assumed to follow an exponential distribution. The server is subject to failure and the failure times are exponentially distributed. The repair times of the machine and the service times of the repairman are assumed to be of phase type. Using matrix‐analytic methods, we perform steady state analysis of this model. The time spent by a failed machine in service and the total time in the repair facility are shown to be of phase type. Several performance measures are evaluated. An optimization problem to determine the number of machines to be assigned to the server that will maximize the expected total profit per unit time is discussed. An illustrative numerical example is presented. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 462–480, 2003     

Fully sequential procedures for comparing constrained systems via simulation

We consider the problem of finding the system with the best primary performance measure among a finite number of simulated systems in the presence of a stochastic constraint on a single real‐valued secondary performance measure. Solving this problem requires the identification and removal from consideration of infeasible systems (Phase I) and of systems whose primary performance measure is dominated by that of other feasible systems (Phase II). We use indifference zones in both phases and consider two approaches, namely, carrying out Phases I and II sequentially and carrying out Phases I and II simultaneously, and we provide specific example procedures of each type. We present theoretical results guaranteeing that our approaches (general and specific, sequential and simultaneous) yield the best system with at least a prespecified probability, and we provide a portion of an extensive numerical study aimed at evaluating and comparing the performance of our approaches. The experimental results show that both new procedures are useful for constrained ranking and selection, with neither procedure showing uniform superiority over the other.© 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

‘The People are Revolting’: An Anatomy of Authoritarian Counterinsurgency

Rather than win hearts and minds, authoritarian counterinsurgency is said to rely heavily on coercion. It has a reputation for effectiveness, if also for its amorality. Still, the research into authoritarian counterinsurgency is surprisingly lacking. By distilling common features from key cases, this article concludes that this approach goes beyond the indiscriminate violence that typically captures the imagination. Like their democratic counterparts but differently, authoritarian regimes also engage in mobilisation, create narratives, and turn military advantage into political gain. The analysis explains how these tasks are undertaken and, by contradistinction, sheds light on more liberal approaches as well.     

65纳米工艺双层三维静态存储器的软错误分析与评估

首先搭建了3D SRAM软错误分析平台,可以快速、自动分析多层die堆叠结构3D SRAM的软错误特性。此平台集成了多种层次模拟软件Geant4、TCAD、Nanosim,数据记录处理软件ROOT,版图处理软件Calibre,以及用于任务链接和结果分析的Perl和shell脚本。利用该平台,对以字线划分设计的3D SRAM和同等规模的2D SRAM分别进行软错误分析,并对分析结果进行了对比。对比分析表明2D 和3D SRAM的翻转截面几乎相同,但3D SRAM单个字中发生的软错误要比2D SRAM更严重,导致难以使用ECC技术对其进行加固。静态模式下2D SRAM和3D SRAM敏感节点均分布于存储阵列中,表明静态模式下逻辑电路不会引发软错误。     

固定翼反潜巡逻机作战效能评估

运用改进的Topsis评估模型对反潜巡逻机的作战效能进行评估,主要是对指标权重的计算方法进行改进:综合考虑客观熵权和专家主观权重得到综合权重,通过客观的熵权信息来调整主观权重的偏差,使得反潜巡逻机作战效能的评价结果更为合理。实例分析表明,该方法能够主客观相结合,简单有效,具有一定的推广应用价值。     

适用于捷联惯性/星光组合导航的导航星表构建方法

构建满足完备性、精简性和查询快速性的导航星表是实现捷联惯性/星光组合导航系统的重要前提和保证。为了达到这一目标，本文选取天文学中的Tycho-2星表作为导航星表的初始星表，它与TRC星表相比具有明显的优势，在实践运用过程中更加完备。在Tycho-2星表基础上，对球矩形分区方法进行了改进，包括明确了分区及子分区的划分方法，提出了备选导航星的选择策略。实验结果表明，采用改进型球矩形分区方法的备选导航星数量最多只占赤纬带法导航星的19.39%，仅占全天遍历法导航星的3.12%。因此，改进型球矩形分区方法更加精准，查询更快捷，更适用于SINS/CNS组合导航系统。     

基于蚁群算法和禁忌搜索的部队机动路径选择

高技术条件下的现代战争对部队机动路径选择问题提出了新要求,一方面道路网的扩大使问题求解的规模大大增加,另一方面作战环境和任务的变化使得问题本身不得不从多角度进行综合评价.增加了问题的复杂性.针对问题建立了数学模型,引入信息熵理论作为目标评价准则,借助改进的蚁群算法、禁忌搜索算法相结合的启发式方法对问题进行求解,得到了令人满意的结果.仿真结果分析认为,算法是切实有效的,并且具有良好的稳定性.